Mark Carney’s Liberal Party is holding a four-percentage point lead over Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives on the eve of Monday’s general election, new data from Ipsos suggests.
But the tight national race obscures the Liberals’ advantage in the key provinces of Ontario and Québec that will likely determine if the party receives a fourth consecutive mandate from Canadian voters.
The Ipsos polling, conducted for Global News and released Sunday, has the Liberals at 42 percent support nationwide, followed by 38 per cent for the Conservatives and single-digit support – just nine per cent – for Jagmeet Singh’s New Democrats.
The poll also suggests that, with a day to go, most Canadian voters have made up their minds.
“At this late juncture, just five per cent of Canadians remain undecided, and 71 per cent of those who have made up their minds are ‘absolutely certain’ of their choice,” Ipsos said in a statement.
“With votes now locked in, the question now focuses on voter turnout and motivation.”
Darrell Bricker, Global CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs, told Global News Sunday that he expects voter turnout to be strong — roughly 70 per cent of eligible voters — and that the “truly undecided” voters probably won’t show up to the polls.
“But there are people who’re not necessarily undecided but they’re leaning one way or the other, and they probably won’t make up their mind finally, finally until they’re right on election day,” Bricker said in an interview.
“In fact, we find in our polling that as many as 10 per cent of people make up their mind when they’re walking into the voting booth. So there’s still a lot to play for here and four per cent is not a huge lead, it can be overcome.”
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Ipsos’ survey has Carney’s Liberals leading in every region of the country except Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba, and that’s bad news for the Conservatives.
“The key to the likely Liberal victory is found in Canada’s most populous provinces: in Ontario, the Liberals enjoy an eight-point lead over the Conservatives, and in Québec, the Liberals benefit from a double-digit lead over all other rivals,” Ipsos said in a statement.
“Moreover, the Liberals also lead by a wide margin in Atlantic Canada, and are clinging to a small advantage in British Columbia, one of Canada’s most competitive regions – particularly due to the collapse of the NDP.”
Poilievre needed to make inroads in Ontario to have a shot at forming government, given the sheer number of seats up for grabs in Canada’s most populous province. According to Ipsos, the Liberals maintain an eight-percentage point advantage – 47 per cent to the Conservatives’ 39 per cent, in that province.
In Québec, the Liberals are at 40 per cent followed by the Bloc Québécois at 25 per cent, the Conservatives at 24 per cent and the New Democrats a distant fourth with just six per cent support.
British Columbia, which has projected as a three-way race for much of the campaign, has the Liberals at 42 per cent, the Conservatives at 39 per cent, and the NDP at 13 per cent. The Green Party is at three per cent support in the province, potentially putting party co-leader Elizabeth May’s Saanich-Gulf Islands seat in jeopardy.
“It’s really a tale of two election campaigns,” Bricker said.
“There’s west of the Ontario-Manitoba border and then it’s east of the Manitoban border. And east of the Ontario-Manitoba border, the Liberals lead in every single region. And unfortunately for the Conservative Party, that’s where most of the seats in the election are.”
Support for the two parties also appears to be split down generational lines — although in a change from recent Canadian political history, more older Canadians appear to be breaking for Carney’s Liberals than the Conservative Party, which usually tends to do better among Canadians aged 55 or older.
“Another key to Liberal success is their large lead among those aged 55+, who typically are the most likely to show up and vote. Among voters aged 55 and older, nearly half (48 per cent) favour the Liberals, while 34 per cent say they’ll vote Conservative,” Ipsos said in a statement.
“In contrast, among those 35-54, the Conservative lead the Liberals 43 per cent to 38 per cent. Among younger voters aged 18-34, the Liberals and Conservatives are tied at 38 per cent with the NDP marginally improving (15 per cent).”
Bucking recent trends, Ipsos found that the Conservatives’ advantage among male voters has diminished, with 42 per cent of male voters backing Poilievre’s party to 40 per cent supporting the Liberals. Among female voters, 44 per cent are behind Carney’s party compared to just 35 per cent backing the Conservatives.
“As ever, voter turnout will decide the composition of parliament, and the size of the Liberal victory will come down to how motivated each party’s supporters are to vote, and which party can translate those good intentions into cast ballots,” Ipsos said.
Ipsos surveyed 2,500 eligible voters for Global News between April 22 and April 26, with a mix of online and live-interview telephone surveys. National numbers are considered accurate within 2.4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, although the margin of error is larger in provincial and regional samples.
© 2025 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.
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